{"id":1025,"date":"2021-10-28T11:35:04","date_gmt":"2021-10-28T15:35:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/visegradpost.com\/?p=1025"},"modified":"2025-05-22T11:54:05","modified_gmt":"2025-05-22T15:54:05","slug":"the-czech-elections-implications-for-visegrad-and-the-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/visegradpost.com\/en\/2021\/10\/28\/the-czech-elections-implications-for-visegrad-and-the-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"The Czech Elections: Implications for Visegr\u00e1d and the EU"},"content":{"rendered":"

Czechia<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 In a theme familiar to many in the West, polling predictions failed dramatically as Czechia held its lower-house elections on October 8-9. This time it worked against the populists, as the outcome was poor for incumbent Prime Minister Andrej Babi\u0161 and\u00a0almost certainly spelled the end of his premiership. Though polls showed his ANO (Yes) party with a consistent single-digit lead in the days before the election,[i]\u00a0the center-right SPOLU (Together) coalition ultimately took the most votes. The left-populist Pirates & Mayors coalition, equally hostile to the prime minister, finished third. The two coalitions have announced plans to form a majority government and shun any collaboration with Babi\u0161.[ii]<\/p>\n

Czech analyst Michal Kl\u00edma called the results \u201can absolute change of politics in the Czech Republic.\u201d \u201cIt stabilizes the country\u2019s position in the West camp,\u201d[iii]\u00a0he continued.<\/p>\n

Analysts are speculating to what degree\u00a0corruption allegations\u00a0played a role in the outcome. The so-called \u201cPandora Papers,\u201d released just days before the election, implicated Babi\u0161 in some questionable offshore business activities. The story dominated Czech media in the days before the election and might have contributed to diminished ANO turnout or emboldening of lukewarm SPOLU voters.[iv]<\/p>\n

Babi\u0161 sustained another major blow when president and staunch ally Milo\u0161 Zeman entered the hospital for a life-threatening condition the day after voting concluded. The president holds significant government-forming powers under Czech law, and he had promised Babi\u0161 the first chance to form a government if his party received the most votes.[v]\u00a0Since Babi\u0161 enjoys neither the highest vote total nor a feasible coalition partner, it is difficult to imagine any way for the incumbent prime minister to remain in power, even if Zeman recovers soon.<\/p>\n

The outcome is not only perplexing in Prague; it represents a range of diplomatic consequences within the Central European Visegr\u00e1d (V4) region and the EU at large. This article will examine these implications.<\/p>\n

Hungary: \u201cPlease Win\u201d<\/strong><\/h4>\n

During his election campaign, Prime Minister Babi\u0161 likely had no greater ally than Hungary\u2019s Viktor Orb\u00e1n. The leaders exchanged visits as the campaign neared its end; the two visited Hungary\u2019s border wall at R\u00f6szke and met again one week later in \u00dast\u00ed nad Labem.\u00a0At the Budapest Demographic Summit, at which both leaders were keynote speakers, the Hungarian leader implored, \u201cAndrej, you\u2019re facing elections: please win.\u201d[vi]<\/p>\n

Unsurprisingly, Babi\u0161 sounded increasingly Orb\u00e1nian in the latter stages of the campaign. The Czech PM vowed his country would use Hungary as a model for new family-support policies, including an increase in payments to families with two or more children and more generous home loans for families.[vii]\u00a0Furthermore, he refused to sign a European petition criticizing\u00a0Hungary\u2019s law against sexual indoctrination of children, calling the gesture \u201cnonsense.\u201d \u201cI really do not understand the upheaval around that legislation,\u201d he continued. \u201cWhat is the problem with making parents responsible for the sexual upbringing of their children? I don\u2019t understand why a NGO should do this; it\u2019s the exclusive right of the parents.\u201d[viii]<\/p>\n

Babi\u0161 most closely resembled his Hungarian colleague by making a strict migration policy one of the cornerstones of his campaign. Photos from the R\u00f6szke border visit were widely published. In a September interview with a Hungarian publication, he said, \u201cI am convinced that\u2026immigration, especially illegal migration, cannot be the answer to the demographic crisis in Europe. Immigrants coming to the continent bring with them a culture and traditions that are radically different from ours\u2026Do we really want such a Europe?\u201d The words would have been just as relevant in Budapest or Warsaw.<\/p>\n

Both incumbent prime ministers have much to gain from their warm relationship. In light of attacks from western politicians, journalists, and NGOs \u2013 not to mention Brussels \u2013 Hungary and Poland have significant interest in a strong Visegr\u00e1d bloc. Babi\u0161, himself the target of Brusselian ire over some of his business practices, understandably reached the same conclusion. Dreadlocked Pirate leader Ivan Barto\u0161, on the other hand, has called for weaker V4 ties and a reorientation toward western Europe.[ix]\u00a0Center-right SPOLU figures to offer little support to the Hungarians in times of controversy. In light of these contrasts, Orb\u00e1n\u2019s campaign push for his Czech colleague is hardly surprising.<\/p>\n

Not lost on Budapest is the fact that the Czech elections could be a precursor to the Hungarian parliamentary elections, scheduled for Spring 2022. Apart from showcasing voter attitudes in the region, they offer a first glimpse at an opposition strategy that will be employed in Hungary \u2013 coalescence of all major opposition parties with the goal of defeating the incumbent prime minister. This worked somewhat differently in Czechia, as two main opposition groups attacked Babi\u0161; nonetheless, the prime minister frequently remarked that the only thing uniting the fragmented opposition was animosity toward him.[x]\u00a0In Hungary, this approach will be even more peculiar, as\u00a0a fringe party with neo-Nazi roots\u00a0and some sordid leadership figures \u2013 historically described as far-right,[xi]\u00a0but awkwardly attempting to moderate its image before the world[xii]\u00a0\u2013 is teaming up with the leftist and centrist opposition parties; without its presence in the coalition, the opposition would stand little chance. The race figures to be close, and Hungarian eyes have been fixed on Prague for any bellwether signs.<\/p>\n

Poland: A Tur<\/strong>\u00f3<\/strong>w Row<\/strong><\/h4>\n

While Czech-Hungarian relations warmed under the Babi\u0161 regime, the same is not true of Czech-Polish relations.\u00a0Tension centers on the Tur\u00f3w coal mine\u00a0in the far southwestern corner of Poland, just a few kilometers from both the Czech and German borders. After state energy giant PGE announced plans to expand activities close to the Czech border this summer, Prague filed a complaint to the European Court of Justice, citing concerns over groundwater levels, dust, and noise among the local population. On September 20, the court levied a \u20ac500,000 daily fine against the Poles until they close the mine.[xiii]<\/p>\n

Poland has reason to be defiant. The mine provides power to a facility that supplies six percent of the nation\u2019s energy supply; over two million people receive power from it, and approximately 1,250 people work at the plant. A full half of jobs in the region are tied to it in some way. \u201cWe are not going to turn off Tur\u00f3w; it would deprive millions of Polish families of electricity,\u201d declared Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.[xiv]\u00a0\u201cNo one in Europe, and especially no one who possesses civic legitimacy, should arbitrarily make a decision that endangers a country\u2019s energy security,\u201d he added.[xv]\u00a0So incensed was the prime minister at his Czech colleagues that he canceled his visit to the Budapest Demographic Summit with other regional leaders; among the keynote speakers was Babi\u0161.<\/p>\n

The Czechs hold the stronger negotiating position in this debate. With Poland forfeiting \u20ac3.5 million per week and Czech elections looming, Prague has had little reason to compromise. Few were surprised that no agreement occurred before the elections.[xvi]<\/p>\n

Poland is also in an unenviable political position vis-\u00e0-vis the Czechs. Warsaw needs a strong V4 to deflect growing bureaucratic pressure from Brussels. A second Babi\u0161 government would have been most likely to provide that. If the center-right SPOLU alliance leads the government, it likely will be friendly to its northern neighbors but certainly will not join them in battles with Brussels. Any coalition participation of the left-populist Pirates & Mayors will be unwelcome in both Warsaw and Budapest. Creation of a second Babi\u0161-led government, followed by a reasonable resolution of the Tur\u00f3w question and a mending of diplomatic ties, seemed to have been the best outcome for Poland. Polish parliamentary elections are not scheduled until November 2023 (barring a snap election), so the government will have time to recover from any Tur\u00f3w-related discomfort.<\/p>\n

As the neighboring Czechs cast their votes, Poland\u2019s constitutional court drew a new round of EU outrage by ruling that some Polish laws take precedence over their EU equivalents. Ursula von der Leyen\u2019s predictable pearl-clutching followed in short order.[xvii]\u00a0It seems to be yet one more case of bad timing for Warsaw, as the number of allies willing to stand up to Brussels ostensibly has shrunk back to one.<\/p>\n

Slovakia: Native Son<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Slovakia has the distinction of having two European heads-of-state within its citizenry: Babi\u0161 was born and raised in Bratislava and maintains Czech-Slovak dual-citizenship. Understandably, this has created some awkwardness for him. From the time of his entry into politics, many Czechs have regarded him as an outsider.[xviii]\u00a0Earlier this year, Babi\u0161 filed a lawsuit against the Slovak National Memory Institute (\u00daPN) in a Slovak court after the organization claimed evidence that he had been an agent for the communist state secret police organization (StB) in the 1980s; he initially succeeded, but the Slovak supreme court ultimately ruled against him.[xix]\u00a0These episodes did little to strengthen his Slovak identity.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, the Czech-Slovak leader in Prague has enjoyed good relations with his new counterpart in Bratislava, Eduard Heger. The latter preserved tradition by taking his first international trip as head-of-state to neighboring Czechia. The Slovaks donated over 10,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccines to their Czech neighbors, and the two countries agreed to increase military and medical cooperation in foreign missions.[xx]\u00a0The two leaders met again in September for tripartite discussions with then-chancellor of Austria Sebastian Kurz on the impending wave of migration from Afghanistan. The Czech leader summarized their agreement on the issue: \u201cThere is really no place for [Afghan migrants] in Europe;\u201d the three leaders committed to support displaced Afghans within their country and neighboring states in Central Asia.[xxi]<\/p>\n

Continuation of a Babi\u0161-led government would cause few ripples in Slovakia. Yet Slovaks need not fear this result. Given the tremendous importance of Czech-Slovak bilateral relations and the relatively uncontroversial standing of the Slovaks in Brussels, Bratislava has little to fear from a new center-right coalition in Prague.<\/p>\n

European Union: One Less Unruly Voice<\/strong><\/h4>\n

This one is straightforward \u2013 the Brussels political machine will be overjoyed at this outcome. First, the new government figures to be decidedly more pro-EU.[xxii]\u00a0EU figureheads can advance a narrative of a victory for liberal democracy over a leader they had villainized. Finally, it will strengthen the EU\u2019s ability to marginalize Budapest and Warsaw. This process will be all-but-complete if Prime Minister Orb\u00e1n\u2019s party underperforms in the elections next spring. For now, irrespective of the coalition talks in her native Germany, Ms. von der Leyen seems at least to have found new friends in Prague.<\/p>\n

\u2014<\/p>\n

[i]\u00a0LACA, Peter: \u201cCzech Premier\u2019s Party Holds Poll Lead in Week Before Elections\u201d. In: Bloomberg, 2021.10.03., https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2021-10-03\/czech-premier-s-party-holds-poll-lead-in-week-before-elections<\/p>\n

[ii]\u00a0LOPATKA, Jan: \u201cCzech election: here\u2019s what could happen next\u201d. In: Reuters, 2021.10.11., https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/czech-election-heres-what-could-happen-next-2021-10-11\/<\/p>\n

[iii]\u00a0JANICEK, Karel: \u201cRuling party narrowly loses Czech vote; PM Babis may be out\u201d. In: AP News, 2021.10.09.,\u00a0https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/andrej-babis-czech-republic-europe-elections-parliamentary-elections-cc40e51610a6dc5cc613931fc72792fb<\/p>\n

[iv]\u00a0JANICEK, Karel: Ruling party narrowly loses Czech vote; PM Babis may be out\u201d. In: AP News, 2021.10.09., https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/andrej-babis-czech-republic-europe-elections-parliamentary-elections-cc40e51610a6dc5cc613931fc72792fb<\/p>\n

[v]\u00a0Ibid.<\/p>\n

[vi]\u00a0NOV\u00c1K, Katalin: \u201cIV. Budapesti Demogr\u00e1fiai Cs\u00facs\u201d. 2021.09.24., https:\/\/budapestidemografiaicsucs.hu\/<\/p>\n

[vii]\u00a0\u201cBabis a magyar modell szerint alak\u00edtan\u00e1 a cseh csal\u00e1dt\u00e1mogat\u00e1si politik\u00e1t\u201d. In: Mandiner, 2021.09.25., https:\/\/mandiner.hu\/cikk\/20210925_babis_a_magyar_modell_szerint_alakitana_a_cseh_csaladtamogatasi_politikat<\/p>\n

[viii]\u00a0KACSOH, D\u00e1niel; SZALAI, Laura: \u201cT\u00e9nyleg ilyen Eur\u00f3p\u00e1t akarunk? \u2013 Andrej Babi\u0161 a Mandinernek\u201d. In: Mandiner, 2021.09.23., https:\/\/mandiner.hu\/cikk\/20210922_tenyleg_ilyen_europat_akarunk<\/p>\n

[ix]\u00a0LOPATKA, Jan: \u201cCzech opposition leader seeks closer ties with liberal allies, revival of euro adoption\u201d. In: Reuters, 2021.09.03., https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/czech-opposition-seeks-closer-ties-with-liberal-allies-revival-euro-adoption-2021-09-03\/<\/p>\n

[x]\u00a0KACSOH, D\u00e1niel; SZALAI, Laura: \u201cT\u00e9nyleg ilyen Eur\u00f3p\u00e1t akarunk? \u2013 Andrej Babi\u0161 a Mandinernek\u201d. In: Mandiner, 2021.09.23., https:\/\/mandiner.hu\/cikk\/20210922_tenyleg_ilyen_europat_akarunk<\/p>\n

[xi]\u00a0THORPE, Nick: \u201cIs Hungary\u2019s Jobbik leader really ditching far-right past?\u201d. In: BBC News, 2016.11.15., https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-37976687<\/p>\n

[xii]\u00a0\u201cDeclaration of Principles\u201d. Jobbik, https:\/\/www.jobbik.com\/declaration_of_principles<\/p>\n

[xiii]\u00a0HARPER, Jo: \u201cFear and loathing at Poland\u2019s Turow coal mine\u201d. In: Deutsche Welle, 2021.09.28., https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/fear-and-loathing-at-polands-turow-coal-mine\/a-59324808<\/p>\n

[xiv]\u00a0Ibid.<\/p>\n

[xv]\u00a0\u201c Komisja Europejska o karze dla Polski: Na razie prosimy\u201d. In: Rzeczpospolita, 2021.09.21., https:\/\/www.rp.pl\/polityka\/art18941051-komisja-europejska-o-karze-dla-polski-na-razie-prosimy<\/p>\n

[xvi]\u00a0\u201cRzecznik rz\u0105du: Polska nie zap\u0142aci\u0142a ani grosza za Tur\u00f3w\u201d. In: Rzeczpospolita, 2021.09.28., https:\/\/www.rp.pl\/biznes\/art18962871-rzecznik-rzadu-polska-nie-zaplacila-ani-grosza-za-turow<\/p>\n

[xvii]\u00a0VON DER BURCHARD, Hans: \u201cUrsula von der Leyen vows to use all the EU\u2019s \u2018powers\u2019 in legal dispute with Poland\u201d. In: Politico, 2021.10.08., https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/poland-rule-of-law-ursula-von-der-leyen-europe-powers\/<\/p>\n

[xviii]\u00a0GRECZULA LEVENTE, L\u00e1szl\u00f3: \u201cPr\u00e1gai \u0151sz \u2013 Csehorsz\u00e1g hamarosan v\u00e1laszt\u201d. In: Mandiner, 2021.09.30., https:\/\/mandiner.hu\/cikk\/20210929_csehorszag_kulfold_valasztas<\/p>\n

[xix]\u00a0ATLAS, Matt: \u201cBabis\u2019 StB Agent Identification Card Found In Slovakia\u201d. In: Prague Business Journal, 2021.09.04., https:\/\/praguebusinessjournal.com\/babis-stb-agent-identification-card-found-in-slovakia\/<\/p>\n

[xx]\u00a0\u201cBabi\u0161 s Hegerem dohodli spole\u010dn\u00e9 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed vl\u00e1dy, \u0159e\u0161ili covidovou krizi\u201d. In: \u010cesk\u00e9 Noviny, 2021.04.15., https:\/\/www.ceskenoviny.cz\/zpravy\/v-zari-by-mohly-znovu-spolecne-jednat-ceska-a-slovenska-vlada\/2020315<\/p>\n

[xxi]\u00a0\u201cPremi\u00e9\u0159i \u010cR, Slovenska a Rakouska jsou proti ileg\u00e1ln\u00ed migraci\u201d. In: \u010cesk\u00e9 Noviny, 2021.09.08., https:\/\/www.ceskenoviny.cz\/zpravy\/babis-s-hegerem-a-kurzem-proberou-afghanistan-ci-vyvoj-pandemie\/2086273<\/p>\n

[xxii]\u00a0BIELECKI, J\u0119drzej: \u201cCzechy bez Babi\u0161a. Nie ma z kim budowa\u0107 wi\u0119kszo\u015bci koalicyjnej\u201d. In: Rzeczpospolita, 2021.10.10., https:\/\/www.rp.pl\/polityka\/art19001531-czechy-bez-babisa-nie-ma-z-kim-budowac-wiekszosci-koalicyjnej<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Czechia\u00a0\u2013 In a theme familiar to many in the West, polling predictions failed dramatically as Czechia held its lower-house elections on October 8-9. This time it worked against the populists, as the outcome was poor for incumbent Prime Minister Andrej Babi\u0161 and\u00a0almost certainly spelled the end of his premiership. Though polls showed his ANO (Yes)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":1026,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"subtitle":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1025","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news"],"acf":{"subtitle":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/visegradpost.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1025","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/visegradpost.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/visegradpost.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/visegradpost.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/visegradpost.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1025"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/visegradpost.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1025\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/visegradpost.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1026"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/visegradpost.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1025"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/visegradpost.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1025"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/visegradpost.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1025"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}