The real cost of Fit for 55: will we be able to bear it?

The costs of the climate transition designed by the EU and implemented in Poland will prove astronomical. They will primarily hit the poorest sections of society, as well as small and medium-sized enterprises

An article by Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse, published originally on Sovereignty.pl. To read the full version on Sovereignty.pl, please click here.

How great will the burden of climate transformation be in Poland? Estimates vary widely here. Even before the outbreak of full-scale war in Ukraine, they were estimated at 240 billion euros by 2030, twice the EU average[1]. In turn, according to the forecasts of economists of Pekao Bank, the implementation of climate goals by 2030 was expected to involve more than 527.5 billion euros, and the gap between the projected revenues of the state budget from ETS emission permits and EU financial support, and the expenses from the Polish side would be at least 300 billion euros[2]. Without EU support, the cost of Poland’s climate transition, according to the same assessments, must have amounted to at least 400 billion euros, or about 1.8 trillion zlotys.

Other researchers argued that the support of EU funds for Poland until 2030 was to amount to only about 5% of total spending[3]. Given that the Commission blocked almost all aid funds allocated to Poland after 2021, including for climate transformation, it was naïve to count on EU support in this regard. Nevertheless, even if they did in fact flow to our country, the vast majority of the resulting burden of the climate transition would have to be borne by the state budget, as well as by local businesses and consumers. It is not difficult to predict that this could lead to serious economic disruption, a decline in the competitiveness of the Polish economy, as well as social discontent. It could also cast serious doubts over Poland’s future membership in the EU.

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